Superseded — June's US-Iran Peace Deal Sent Oil Below $84 and Eased Mortgage Rates, Then the Conflict Resumed
This article has been superseded. It is a historical record of the US-Iran framework peace deal announced on 15 June 2026. That deal did not hold — the ceasefire collapsed within weeks, the Strait of Hormuz was re-closed, and by August the conflict had resumed. Brent crude, which fell to $83.24 that day, is back near $90 a barrel. For the current situation, read the live BoE rate cycle developing story. --- Original update — 15 June 2026 (kept for the record). The Iran war that has gripped UK household finances since February just took its sharpest turn yet. Overnight, the US and Iran announced a framework peace deal — Brent crude immediately dropped 4.7% to $83.24 a barrel, its lowest since the second week of the conflict. Donald Trump posted "let the oil flow!" on social media. Asian markets surged 5% across the board. The FTSE 100 hit an eight-week high. UK 10-year gilt yields dropped 6.5 basis points to 4.775%. Mortgage rates — which had begun easing before today — are now widely expected to have passed their peak. A signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday 19 June in Switzerland — the same day the Bank of England announces its June interest rate decision. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil normally passes, could begin reopening within days. Shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd said it was "looking forward to the end of any military actions in the region" and hoped vessels could transit "this week." But here's the sobering reality beneath the relief rally. Mine clearance in the Strait could take weeks to six months. Tankers are in the wrong places. Refineries and production facilities were damaged or mothballed. Capital Economics estimates only ~80% of energy flows resume by end-Q3. Natural gas flows will be slower still — Qatari facilities had 17% of production knocked offline for two to three years. And the peace framework includes a 60-day window for "tough conversations" that could yet unravel. This is the moment the crisis starts to end — but the economic damage already baked in takes months to unwind. Here's what changed overnight, what hasn't changed yet, and what UK households should do now.