Index-Linked Gilts Explained: How UK Inflation-Protected Government Bonds Work — June 2026 Update
The US-Iran peace deal announced on 15 June 2026 has sent oil prices tumbling and gilt yields lurching in opposite directions. The 10-year nominal gilt dropped from 5.07% in mid-May to roughly 4.91% today. The 10-year index-linked equivalent, the 0⅛% Treasury Gilt 2036 (TG36), now yields 1.68% real — fractionally higher than the 1.65% it offered a month ago, before anyone was talking about peace. The result: the implied breakeven inflation rate between nominal and index-linked gilts has compressed from 3.42% to approximately 3.23%. The market is pricing peace, cheaper energy, and lower inflation. That is the single most important number for any UK saver weighing cash, conventional gilts, or linkers right now — and it has moved decisively in one month. Index-linked gilts remain the only sterling asset that offers a government-backed real return. You lock in RPI inflation plus 1.68% for a decade. Cash ISAs at roughly 4.5% give you a fixed nominal rate and a real return that erodes with every inflation print above that number. The peace deal has changed the arithmetic — but not, for most investors, the conclusion. Here is the updated case, with fresh data from 15 June 2026.