Sequence-of-Returns Risk Explained: Why the Average Return Is a Lie That Could Bankrupt Your Retirement
£100,000 withdrawn at 4% a year, earning an average 5% annual return. That's the retirement maths most people do in their head — and it works. Sort of. Except when it doesn't. Here's a number that should make you uncomfortable: two retirement portfolios, same starting pot, identical average return of 5%, same £4,000 annual withdrawal. One lasts 34 years. The other runs out in year 23. The only difference is the order in which the returns arrived. That's sequence-of-returns risk — and it is, by a distance, the most dangerous thing about retirement planning that nobody talks about. The industry doesn't mention it because it complicates the neat compound-interest charts. Your pension provider doesn't mention it because their projection tool assumes a constant 5% every year, which the real world has never delivered for more than two consecutive years. This article explains what it is, why it only bites when you're taking money out, and the five practical defences available to a UK investor.