Yields Right Now (as of Early August 2026)
The curve has changed meaningfully since May. Inflation is falling, the MPC is stationary, and the 10-year has given back about 30 basis points of its spring spike. Buying without checking the current shape of the curve is like buying a stock without checking the price.
Three observations matter for buyers right now.
The curve has flattened but is still upward-sloping. The 20-year offers roughly 140 basis points more than Bank Rate, down from 196bp in May. The market is pricing in less inflation risk than it was three months ago — CPI fell to 2.6% in June, down from 3.3% in March — but the term premium hasn't vanished. Investors are still demanding compensation for the risk that supply, geopolitics, or a reversal in the inflation trend push long yields higher.
Every point on the curve still beats Bank Rate. Even the 2-year, the safest spot for retail investors who want near-certainty, pays 30bp more than the base rate. Gilts beat retail savings on three dimensions: yield (the best 1-year fixed-rate cash bonds sit around 4.3-4.5% gross, and a 5-year gilt at 4.35% inside an ISA delivers the full 4.35% tax-free), locked-in duration, and the CGT exemption on low-coupon capital gains.
The 10-year at 4.80% is above June's 4.796% long-term average (FRED series IRLTLT01GBM156N) but well below May's 5.10% spike. The trajectory has been downward as inflation moderated — but the BoE's 30 July statement explicitly flagged Iran escalation as a trigger for rate hikes. If that materialises, yields move higher; if the ceasefire holds, they drift lower on the back of falling inflation. Either scenario supports buying at these levels rather than waiting for perfect timing that never arrives.
Compare against retail cash: the best-buy 1-year fixed-rate cash bond in August 2026 sits around 4.3-4.5% gross. Net of basic-rate income tax (after the £1,000 PSA is exhausted) that becomes 3.44-3.60%; net of higher-rate tax, 2.58-2.70%. A 5-year gilt at 4.35% inside an ISA hands you the full 4.35%. A low-coupon 5-year gilt outside an ISA gives a higher-rate taxpayer roughly 3.80% net — better than the cash bond after tax and locked for five years instead of one.
The data draws on the Bank of England's nominal par yield curve and FRED long-term gilt yield series. Live secondary-market screen yields on platforms may differ by a few basis points depending on the specific gilt and prevailing bid-offer.