Cash vs Equities: The Numbers Behind the Advice
With the BoE base rate at 3.75%, the best easy-access savings accounts pay roughly 3.5–4.0%. That's decent for a rainy-day fund. NS&I Premium Bonds now offer a 3.80% prize rate, tax-free. For a 30-year timeline, none of these are building you real wealth.
The FTSE All-Share has delivered an annualised total return of around 7–8% over the past three decades, dividends reinvested. Strip out inflation — which has averaged 2–3% — and cash has often returned close to zero in real terms. Equities, for all their volatility, have delivered meaningful real growth.
The catch is simple: equities don't pay out on a schedule. The gap between knowing the long-term averages and living through a 30% drawdown is where most beginners sell at the worst possible moment. If you need the money within three years, keep it in cash. If your horizon is five years or longer, the historical data points one way — but only if you stay invested through the rough patches.
There's a subtler point most beginner guides skip: sequence risk. The order in which returns arrive matters enormously when you're withdrawing. A portfolio that drops 30% in year one of retirement never recovers — even if long-term averages look fine. This is why cash buffers matter near retirement, and it's why our sequence-of-returns risk guide is worth reading before you're five years from needing the money.