The Deposit Opportunity Cost Nobody Calculates
A 15% deposit on a £290,000 home is £43,500. Plus £2,000 in legal fees and surveys. That is £45,500 locked into one asset, in one location, in one currency, in one regulatory regime.
Invest that £45,500 in a low-cost global equity tracker inside a Stocks and Shares ISA. At a conservative 7% nominal annual return — the FTSE All-World has delivered 9.6% annualised over 15 years — it compounds to £63,800 after five years, £89,600 after ten, and £248,000 after 25 years. Tax-free, inside the ISA wrapper.
Now look at the property. UK house prices have grown at roughly 2.5% real annually over the long term. On £290,000, that is £7,250 a year. But you do not capture that growth cleanly — your £290,000 asset costs you £45,500 in deposit plus £183,800 in interest over 25 years (at 4.92%), plus £1,500 annually in maintenance, insurance, and repairs — £37,500 over the term.
The total cost of ownership above the purchase price: roughly £221,000. The ISA investor put in £45,500 and added £183 a month (the mortgage-rent gap). After 25 years at 7%: £395,000.
The homeowner put in £45,500, paid £183,800 in interest and £37,500 in maintenance, and owns a £290,000 house. At 2.5% real annual growth, that house is worth £536,000. Net equity: £536,000 minus £221,000 in dead costs = £315,000.
The renter has £395,000. The buyer has £315,000. The renter is £80,000 ahead — and has spent 25 years with the flexibility to move for jobs, relationships, or better schools.
The FCA requires investment platforms to display the warning that past performance is not a guide to future returns. The same warning applies to house prices — and with asking prices posting their biggest June drop in 14 years, the risk of mean reversion is real.