Cash has a secret tax: reinvestment risk
Here's what the cash-is-king crowd won't tell you. When your 1-year fixed bond matures at 4.4%, you won't reinvest at 4.4%. You'll reinvest at whatever rate exists in 12 months — and every signal points to lower.
The Bank of England has cut rates four times since August 2024. Markets are pricing in at least one more cut in 2026. The trajectory is clear: 5.25% → 4.75% → 4.50% → 4.25% → 4.00% → 3.75%. Next stop, 3.50% or lower.
NS&I has already confirmed Premium Bonds drop from 3.60% to 3.30% in April. That's an 8.3% cut in your expected return overnight. Easy access rates will follow — they always do. The Bank of England's effective interest rate data shows that average savings rates lag base rate cuts by 2-3 months. By this time next year, that 4.55% account could easily be paying 3.5%.
Stocks don't have this problem. When you buy shares in HSBC at a 4.68% dividend yield, that income comes from actual business profits, not a central banker's decision. Companies like Shell (3.26% yield), Rio Tinto (4.46%), and Unilever (3.53%) have paid dividends through recessions, pandemics, and wars. As our investing hub explains, dividend income from quality companies tends to grow over time, not shrink.