The Arithmetic Most People Skip
If you overpay £10,000 on a 4.92% mortgage, you save exactly £492 in interest in year one. That's a 4.92% return — tax-free, because you're not earning interest, you're avoiding it. There is no tax on money you don't pay to a lender.
In year two, you save another £492 — plus the compounding effect of having avoided £492 of interest that would itself have accrued interest. Over 20 years, a single £10,000 overpayment on a 4.92% mortgage saves you £16,142 in interest. That's a cumulative return of 61.4% — guaranteed.
Now compare that to a Stocks & Shares ISA. The FTSE 100 has returned 7.2% annualised over 40 years. £10,000 at 7.2% for 20 years becomes £40,215 — nearly £24,000 more than the mortgage overpayment. Impressive, until you ask one question: which year does the crash happen?
If your 20-year ISA horizon includes a 2008-style 48% drawdown in year 19, your £40,215 becomes £20,912 — and you've barely beaten the mortgage overpayment. If the crash happens in year 2, you never recover. The average return is not the return you get. The mortgage return is.
This isn't abstract. Between 2000 and 2009, the FTSE 100 delivered a total return of -0.3% per year. Anyone who channelled their spare cash into a tracker rather than their mortgage for that entire decade ended up poorer on both fronts: they still had the debt, and their investments had gone precisely nowhere.