The SPIVA Evidence: Active Management Is a Losing Game
S&P's SPIVA scorecard tracks active funds against their benchmarks. The UK equity category is brutal: over a 10-year horizon, around 85% of actively managed UK equity funds have historically trailed the S&P United Kingdom BMI. The numbers for US equity funds are even worse — over 90% of US large-cap active funds underperform the S&P 500 over 15 years.
What makes this especially damning is survivorship bias. The SPIVA data only counts funds that still exist. The ones that closed — the truly disastrous ones — are excluded from the calculation. The real underperformance rate is almost certainly higher.
You might think: "Fine, but I'll pick one of the 15% that do beat the market." Here's the problem. Morningstar's persistence studies show that funds in the top quartile in one period are no more likely than random chance to be in the top quartile in the next. Past outperformance does not predict future outperformance. What does predict future underperformance? High fees.
The Financial Conduct Authority's 2017 asset management market study confirmed what the data had been showing for years: there is weak price competition in the active fund industry, charges are not well explained to retail investors, and fund objectives are not always clear. The final report noted that actively managed funds "do not typically outperform their benchmarks after fees" — the regulator itself stating the case against active management.