The Arithmetic of Never Selling
Imagine two ISA investors with £100,000 each. Investor A buys a FTSE 100 tracker yielding 3.5% and takes the dividends as income. Investor B buys the same tracker, reinvests all dividends, and sells £3,500 of shares each year to generate the same cash flow.
After year one, Investor A still owns all their original shares. The portfolio value may fluctuate — that is equity investing — but the number of shares owned has not changed. In year two, they receive another £3,500 (likely more, since FTSE 100 dividends have grown at roughly 5% annually over the last four decades).
Investor B has sold 3.5% of their holding. If markets rose 10% that year, fine — they sold at a profit. But if markets fell 20%, they just locked in a permanent capital loss. To generate the same £3,500, they had to sell more shares at exactly the wrong time. This is not a theoretical edge case: the FTSE 100 has fallen in roughly one year in three since 1984. The dividend investor sailed through those years collecting cheques. The total-return investor ate their seed corn.
After 20 years at 3.5% annual withdrawals, the total-return investor has sold roughly half their original share count. The dividend investor still owns every share — and each share is paying more income than it did two decades ago.