The 6-3 Vote That Flipped the Savings Market
The July vote matters because savings rates follow Bank Rate with a lag — and the direction of that lag has reversed. When the Committee was cutting, fixed rates fell first and savers locked in to dodge the next reduction. Today the Committee is split, and fixed rates have been rising since March as providers price in the risk that they take deposits at one rate and lend them out into a higher one.
CPI inflation is 2.6% — above the 2% target — and the Committee expects it to rise later this year as the Middle East energy shock feeds through to pump prices and heating bills. The hawks argue that inflation has now been above target for more than five years, so a pre-emptive quarter-point rise is cheaper than waiting for second-round effects to take hold. The six who voted to hold point to a loose labour market and evidence of underlying disinflation. The next decision lands on 17 September.
For a saver, none of this is a cue to time the Bank of England. It is a cue to change the benchmark you judge accounts against. A fixed rate now pays you extra because of the risk that variable rates rise — which changes both which account you choose and how long you commit for. Our full take on the rate path is in the developing story on the BoE rate cycle.